Could the Liberal Democrats Become the Official Opposition?

We all know the Labour Party is on track for a landslide victory against the Conservatives. However, there isn’t a net saving the Tories from falling below second place. That means there is a possibility that another party could soon become the opposition. 

Most parties couldn’t get enough votes to become the second largest in parliament over the Conservatives and Labour. After the SNP’s decline, there is only one party left that could pull this move off, the Liberal Democrats. Now, as outrageous as this seems, the Lib Dems did beat the Tories by 7 councillors to come out 522 seats in recent local elections. To put this into perspective, the Labour Party won 1158 councillors. The voting intention for the General Election from YouGov is polling the Liberal Democrats at around 15% and the Tories at around 20%. MRP Polls put the Tories as low as 70 seats and the Lib Dems as high as 50 seats out of 650 up for grabs.

One reason this may be is that many centrist Conservative voters fear that the backbenchers and even some cabinet members will call to topple Sunak, and he will then most likely be replaced with a more right-wing Tory. So, they are moving towards the Lib Dems. Others are protesting against the moderate Tory government, but do not want to vote for the Labour Party, so they fall in the Lib Dem's vote share.

So, is it possible that the Lib Dems will become the opposition party? Well, the odds are stacked against them, it is not likely that the Lib Dems will win second. Most people haven’t even heard of their leader Ed Davey.

In conclusion, the Tories will lose the General Election and will become the Opposition Party, however, the Lib Dems will likely become the third largest party in the parliament, which gives them 2 permanent questions during PMQs (the SNP currently holds this). It is in the balance whether Sunak will mess up so badly that his party scuttles to third place or retain his future position as Leader of the Opposition.