2026 Box Office Predictions

While the 2020s have overall been pretty solid so far for movies releases and box office (even if a global pandemic did cause a shift for many movies), many can agree that 2026 will likely be one of the biggest years for movies in a very long time. Not only due to the releases, which includes the likes of a new Avengers movie, a new Toy Story movie, a new Star Wars movie, a new movie directed by Christopher Nolan, and a new Spider Man movie, but also the box office potential of all these movies coming soon. However, with many big movies releasing so close to each other, will it be one of the most profitable years or will it be a box office massacre? Today, I will be trying to predict the top 10 movies of the year in terms of their box office total. 

Top 10:

1. Avengers: Doomsday ($1.2 to $1.9 billion)

So this is a make or break for Marvel, as while this year for Marvel was much better than previous years in terms of quality, all 3 of the movies (Captain America Brave New World, Thunderbolts and Fantastic 4) underperformed commercially, even when the latter 2 were receiving more positive reception compared to earlier years in the 2020s. So while this may be detrimental to Doomsday’s success, it will likely do much better than all those movies due to the fact that it is AVENGERS. It’s an easily recognisable and popular brand, and the fact that it is another big Marvel event movie is getting people hyped. This is already guaranteeing a billion dollars for the movie, which could potentially increase due to the multiverse idea, as past characters from not only MCU films but also other older films such as the old X Men and Spider Man films are likely to appear, meaning that nostalgia could bring in more full theatres. However, it is definitely going to be a decrease from previous Avengers movies, as Marvel’s declining quality is affecting the box office and brand in general. However, if the movie’s any good, it can likely do very well, I personally don’t think it will hit that sweet $2 billion spot that previous Avengers movies had gotten to, though it isn’t a guarantee, meaning there is a possibility for other movies in this list making more. However, if this grosses on the higher end of the box office range that I have predicted, then the sequel releasing after it in 2027, Secret Wars, will definitely do much better if on the same quality.  

2. Spider Man: Brand New Day ($1.3 to $1.7 billion)

However, even though the Marvel brand has taken a hit over the last couple years, one of the few superheroes that have stayed popular is the world’s most iconic superhero, Spiderman. As seen with movies like No Way Home, Spiderman is incredibly popular, as that movie grossed $1.9 billion, making it currently the 8th highest grossing film ever, and it likely would have made $2 billion if the Covid-19 pandemic wasn’t a big deal. So there are many reasons why this will do very well, however not as well as No Way Home, as that movie utilised characters from past Spider Man movie eras and helped channel nostalgia from fans, which caused it to make so much. However, this new movie is a fresh new start for the Tom Holland version of this character, as seen from the events of No Way Home. So while it won’t likely be as big as No Way Home, there are still many reasons why this movie will do very well. This movie is set to be more of a love letter to the comics, as it is featuring many villains that fans have wanted to see in live action for years, including Scorpion, Tombstone and potentially Mr Negative. The movie will also feature popular Stranger Things actress Sadie Sink, and will also have popular Marvel characters Hulk and the Punisher, and will also likely feature Daredevil, creating a massive team up that many fans have wanted to see for years, which could definitely attract more people to watch. There’s also a small possibility that this could make more money than Avengers, however I personally think Avengers will beat it out by a bit. 

3. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie ($1.3 to $1.6 billion)

Next is likely the biggest animated movie of next year, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie. This will likely do very well, as while the original Super Mario Bros Movie from 2023 wasn’t the most critically acclaimed movie, it had a very positive audience reaction and managed to be the second highest grossing film of that year, grossing $1.3 billion. However, since this is based on one of Mario’s most critically acclaimed and most popular video games, Super Mario Galaxy, this will definitely not only bring fans of the 2023 movie, but also fans of that game. The movie will also feature fan-favourite characters Rosalina and Yoshi, which will definitely help. So if the sequel at the very least has better pacing and an interesting storyline, this will definitely help bring much more money than the first, and can make the Mario movie series one of Universal’s most profitable and popular franchises.

4. Toy Story 5 ($900 million to $1.1 billion)

Yes, I know this is one of the biggest Disney franchises in the world right now, but having a fifth Toy Story movie when both the 3rd AND the 4th movie were meant to end the story separately feels a bit much, doesn't it? Now, I’m not judging these films based on quality, as all the Toy Story movies have been very well received and this new one will likely be too, but the fatigue of having ANOTHER Toy Story movie that’s supposedly ending the story again will definitely affect the box office results by a bit. This was seen in 2019 when Toy Story 4 released, as that movie was predicted to have a significant increase over Toy Story 3 ($1.067 billion in 2010), however Toy Story 4 ended up grossing $1.074 billion, which was an increase, but it was quite small. So for this movie, while it could make more and hit $1.1 billion, there is also a chance for a decrease to $900 million. However, even if it makes less than the previous 2, Toy Story 5 will still likely do very well for current 2026 standards, and is still in the top half of the top 10 highest grossing films of 2026. The movie also will likely not go any lower than $900 million, as Toy Story is still very popular with both kids and adults.   

5. Minions 3 ($900 million to $1 billion)

Next up is the highest grossing animated franchise ever. While Minions 3 will definitely not be the highest grossing movie of next year, it will definitely pull in a lot of money for Universal and Illumination. While some may say it won’t make too much because it is a spinoff of the mainline Despicable Me movies, that theory is just wrong, as proven by Minions 1 and Minions: The Rise of Gru ($1.1 billion in 2015 and $900 million in 2022 with Covid-19). Regardless of quality, many kids will still want to watch this new Minions movie, and it also may inspire a trend similar to that of the “Gentleminions” trend back in 2022 with Rise of Gru, which could definitely pull in a wider audience. Minions 3 could also bring back the franchise to be a regular $1 billion per movie standard set by Minions 1 and Despicable Me 3, as the last 2 movies (Rise of Gru and Despicable Me 4) both came close but grossed $900 million, though I wouldn’t say it’s a guarantee, and personally to me, at least $900 million is a much safer bet.

6. The Odyssey ($750 million to $1 billion)

Christopher Nolan’s next movie will likely be a big event for the summer, as seen with Oppenheimer back in 2023 making $950 million next to Barbie, and with his other movies such as the Dark Knight Trilogy, Inception and Interstellar having made at the very least $700 million each (Dark Knight Trilogy is technically 3 movies added up, but I’ll count it towards his box office returns). Nolan’s also known for directing movies of high quality, so the reception to the Odyssey will likely be very similar to that of his previous movies: very good. However, there are some factors for why this may not hit that sweet $1 billion spot. For example, the competition in July when it releases. The Odyssey will be releasing a week after the Moana live action movie, 2 weeks after Minions 3, and 2 weeks before Spider Man: Brand New Day. While the first two might not be as big of competition due to having already released earlier, Brand New Day could definitely affect the box office run of the Odyssey due to a likely higher popularity (fun fact: both movies star Tom Holland). The Odyssey will also be based on the Greek epic that is Homer’s Odyssey, which while is still popular, could mean that it has less wide appeal to audiences due to the story being a bit confusing and being very long. Oppenheimer was also released next to Barbie to create the “Barbenheimer” phenomenon, which definitely contributed to helping it reach $950 million. Without a phenomenon like Barbenheimer, The Odyssey might struggle a bit to reach that same level of success, however, I have faith that the movie will still do very well due to Nolan’s household name, the stacked cast (which not only includes Tom Holland, but also Matt Damon, Anne Hathaway, Zendaya, Robert Pattinson, Charlize Theron and more), and the movie acting as a big summer event for Universal along with Minions 3.

7. Moana (live action) ($700 million to $900 million)

Now this is a bit of a wild card. While yes, Moana is one of Disney’s most popular films, being one of the most streamed films on Disney Plus, and its sequel, while being inferior to the original, still managed to gross $1 billion at the box office, there is also an obvious fatigue of Disney live action remakes, as seen with films such as the Little Mermaid and Snow White, as they were originally predicted to make lots of money and instead either underperformed or just entirely flopped at the box office. Moana was also originally released in 2016, so it feels way too soon to make a live action movie when the movie isn’t even 10 years old at the time of writing this. However, remember when I said that this movie will be a bit of a wild card? I personally think that unless another controversy pops up again similar to the Little Mermaid or Snow White, Moana will still do very well, as Disney live action remakes aren’t completely box office poison yet, as seen with Lilo and Stitch this year, as that movie managed to make $1 billion despite Snow White also having come out the same year. However, $1 billion is a very unlikely possibility, due to the reasons mentioned earlier.

8. Dune Part 3 ($650 million to $850 million)

So, after Dune Part 2 made $715 million at the box office last year and received much critical acclaim from both critics and audiences, why am I predicting that it won’t hit a billion, and also has a possibility for a decrease? Well, this comes from the fact that Dune Part 3 will adapt the second book in the Dune series, Dune Messiah, which is known to be a more philosophical story based on politics, instead of being a large scale sci-fi movie similar to that of the first Dune book, which was what the first 2 Dune movies were based on. This means that many audiences will likely be less engaged with this film in comparison to the other 2, and the sudden change from a large scale action movie to a more philosophical movie will definitely decrease box office returns. There also comes the problem of them possibly changing the source material in order to appeal to a wider audience, which could alienate original fans of Messiah and may cause the story to be less cohesive in comparison to the other two. However, if somehow Denis Villeneuve (the director of the Dune trilogy) can overcome these challenges then there is definitely a chance that Dune Part 3 can increase in box office over the predecessors, though $900 to $1 billion is likely out of the question, as Dune is a sci-fi franchise that has less appeal to a wider audience due to not having a franchise that runs all the way back to the 1970s, unlike something like Star Wars. However, even if it increases or decreases, this movie should still do good business for Warner Bros if they keep the budget in the $150 million to the $200 million range.

9. Jumanji: The Next Level sequel ($600 million to $800 million)

After 7 years, Jumanji finally returns after many years of saying that “the script was ready” and Dwayne Johnson and Kevin Hart stating that “the film is coming”. Jumanji 1 was a massive surprise at the box office back in 2017, as it was originally seen as a generic action remake of a 1990s movie with an A-list cast. Under that skin however, it was actually a very funny movie with strong performances from that same cast. The positive word of mouth likely contributed to the movie making $950 million, making it the fifth highest grossing movie of 2017. While its sequel, Jumanji The Next Level did decrease, it was definitely due to competition from Frozen 2 and Star Wars The Rise of Skywalker, both $1 billion grossers and the fact that the movie’s release went into 2020, where Covid-19 occurred. Considering all these detriments, it’s very surprising that it managed to make $800 million, making it the tenth highest grossing movie of 2019. However, there are definitely detriments to releasing this movie again in December similar to the first 2, as it has even bigger competition with Avengers Doomsday and Dune Part 3 releasing a week after it. There also comes the fact that it has been 7 YEARS since the last Jumanji movie, which could definitely decrease the box office, as the movie’s target audience has likely grown up. However, if the same level of comedy and performances from the last 2 movies can be seen in this movie, then this sequel will likely still do well for itself, even if another $100 million to $200 million decrease could be imminent (or it’s box office gross just stays the same, which I have predicted above). 

10. The Mandalorian and Grogu ($400 million to $600 million)

So, remember how I mentioned when talking about Dune Part 3 has less wide appeal than Star Wars? So why do I have the first new Star Wars movie in 7 years below Dune? Well, this is for a multitude of reasons. Even if the Mandalorian and Grogu will still hit the top 10 this year with a budget of $166 million and hopefully manage to hit the range of box office gross that I have predicted, this will be a huge disappointment for the franchise overall after many years of making at least $1 billion. Now for the “multitude of reasons”. The Mandalorian (the show which this new movie originates from, sort of as a fourth season for it) hasn’t been the most positively received out of the many Star Wars shows that have released on Disney Plus, as while the first 2 seasons are incredible and land it near the top of Star Wars media in terms of quality, the third season of the show completely drops the ball, as it is much weaker than the first 2 and wasn’t even necessary, which ended up causing the Mandalorian to be deemed as “just alright” from many critics and fans. The “many Star Wars shows” have also caused a general fatigue for many fans of the series, which is definitely not going to help. The general quality of the sequel trilogy (which was terrible by the way) also helped many to lose trust in the Star Wars franchise as well. This means that when the Mandalorian and Grogu comes out, while it will still make some money due to being freaking Star Wars and being released in a not too crowded month (really the only competition is the Devil Wears Prada 2 and Mortal Kombat II), this movie will definitely disappoint Disney and Lucasfilm, and will hopefully cause them to think about Star War’s problems and hopefully make the next mainline movie high quality to help bring Star Wars back as a popular franchise. Even then though, I had originally had movies like Supergirl, the new Hunger Games movie, a new Steven Spielberg movie, a Michael Jackson biopic and even Devil Wears Prada 2 at the tenth spot, showing that there might be a bigger competition for this spot than I thought, which also shows that the Mandalorian and Grogu isn’t exactly guaranteed for this spot.